The present study aims to conduct a foresight analysis in the field of soft governance by religious institutions to manage ethnic divides in Iranian sports and to outline possible future scenarios within the coming time horizon. The research is applied-developmental in purpose and employs a mixed-method approach (qualitative–quantitative) based on the scenario planning model (expert-based). In the qualitative phase, data were collected through 18 semi-structured interviews with religious scholars, sports managers, local actors, and specialized journalists, and analyzed using thematic analysis (Braun & Clarke). The qualitative analysis led to the identification of five overarching themes: the recreation of religious trust in multiethnic sports spaces, the transfer of cultural authority from institutions to local networks, algorithmic logic and narrative competition in the digital sphere, adaptive and multilayered soft governance, and the balance between collective participation and identity divides. Based on these findings, 15 key drivers were identified and evaluated in the quantitative phase using the Delphi technique and structural analysis via MICMAC software. The structural analysis revealed five core drivers shaping the future: institutional and platform power, symbolic religious capitalization in media, accountability and transparency, indigenous and independent content production, and engagement with algorithms. By defining the dual states of these drivers and assessing their compatibility through an expert panel, four main scenarios were extracted: (1) Intelligent synergy between institutions and society (desirable),