نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه اردکان، یزد، اردکان

چکیده

هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر بررسی فرصت‌ها و چالش‌های پیش‌روی قدرت‌نرم ایران بعد از خروج نیروهای آمریکا از افغانستان، برمبنای ماتریس SWOT است. در همین راستا نیز سوالی که مطرح می‌شود این است که «قدرت نرم منطقه‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران پس از خروج نیروهای آمریکا از افغانستان و حاکمیت مجدد دولت طالبان در این کشور، با چه فرصت‌ها و چالش‌هایی روبرو شده است؟» نتایج حاصل از تحقیق که با رویکرد روشی توصیفی-تحلیلی و کاربست مدل SWOT حاصل شده است، نشان می‌دهد که مواردی‌چون 1-نفوذ اقتتصادیِ بی‌بدیل ایران در افغانستان؛ 2-امکان‌یابی تقویت همکاری‌های سه جانبه ایران، چین و روسیه و کاهش نفوذ آمریکا؛ 4-ابزار فشار و قدرت بازدارندگی لشکر فاطمیون؛ و 4- نارضایتی‌عمومی از عملکرد بایدن در افغانستان و وضعیت جدیدِ رسانه‌ای ایجاد شده به‌نفع ایران، فرصت‌های لازم جهت اعمال قدرت نرم ایران و ایفای نقش برتر در منطقه را فراهم کرده است. در این میان اما چالش‌هایی نیز همچون 1-قوم‌گرایی طالبان؛ 2-امکان نفوذ اندیشه‌هایی چون داعش و دولت اسلامی ولایت خراسان در طالبان؛ 3- امکان رویکرد قهرآمیز طالبان نسبت به شیعیان؛ و 4-نفوذ دولت‌های پاکستان، قطر و ترکیه در متن تحولات افغانستان، از جمله مورادی است که نفوذ قدرت‌نرم جمهوری‌اسلامی‌ایران را با مشکل رو برو خواهد کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Opportunities and challenges facing the soft power of the Islamic Republic of Iran after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan

نویسنده [English]

  • mohsen shafiee seifabadi

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ardakan University, Yazd, Ardakan

چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this article is to examine the opportunities and challenges facing Iran's soft power after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, based on the SWOT matrix. In this regard, the question that arises is "What opportunities and challenges does the soft power of the Islamic Republic of Iran face after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and the re-establishment of the Taliban government in this country ?" The results of the research, which has been obtained by descriptive-analytical method approach and application of SWOT model, show that cases such as: 1- Iran's irreplaceable economic influence in Afghanistan; 2- Enabling the strengthening of trilateral cooperation between Iran, China and Russia and reducing US influence; 4- Instruments of pressure and deterrent power of Liwa Fatemiyoun; And 4. Public dissatisfaction with Biden's performance in Afghanistan and the new state of the media created in Iran's favor have provided opportunities for Iran to exercise soft power and play a leading role in the region. Meanwhile, there are also challenges such as 1. Taliban ethnicity; 2- The possibility of influencing ideas such as ISIS and the Islamic State of Khorasan province in the Taliban; 3- The possibility of the Taliban's coercive approach towards the Shiites; 4. The influence of the governments of Pakistan, Qatar and Turkey in the context of the developments in Afghanistan is one of the obstacles and threats to the influence of the soft power of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • soft power
  • Iran
  • Afghanistan
  • swot model
  • USA
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